XRP Faces Mounting Technical and Fundamental Pressures
As of March 8, XRP is trading at $2.32, but looming technical and fundamental indicators suggest a potential 20% price decline in the near future. With a weakening market structure and shifting macroeconomic dynamics, investors should closely monitor three critical signals: a symmetrical triangle pattern, Trump’s strategic crypto reserve decision, and recent whale movement trends.
XRP Price Chart Hints at 20% Drop Ahead
XRP/USD is currently forming a symmetrical triangle pattern on its weekly chart, a formation that indicates a battle between buyers and sellers. While many traders view symmetrical triangles as continuation patterns, they can also break in either direction depending on prevailing momentum.
The Risk of Breakdown: Learning from Ethereum’s 2018 Collapse
Historically, crypto markets have witnessed such setups leading to significant declines rather than bullish breakouts. A notable example is Ethereum’s 2018 triangle breakdown, which resulted in an 80% crash in ETH’s price.
Applying similar technical analysis to XRP suggests that if the price falls below the lower support level of the triangle, it could decline toward $1.46, aligning with the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA)—a key support zone for long-term investors.
Trump’s Crypto Strategy Favors Bitcoin Over XRP
Following the White House’s inaugural Crypto Summit on March 7, XRP investors initially hoped for its inclusion in the U.S. strategic crypto reserve. However, optimism quickly faded when Trump’s team clarified that while Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and XRP were mentioned, they were not officially selected.
Bitcoin Gets the Nod While XRP Lags Behind
- There is no evidence that the U.S. government holds XRP in its digital asset reserves.
- Trump’s broader strategy excludes new purchases of altcoins, focusing instead on Bitcoin accumulation.
- The U.S. government currently holds $17.7 billion in BTC, reinforcing Bitcoin’s dominance.
This development triggered an immediate 10% decline in XRP’s market price and created uncertainty regarding its long-term adoption and regulatory standing.
XRP Trading Volume Explosion Mirrors 2021 Bear Market
Another concerning sign for XRP is its trading volume surge, which mirrors previous distribution phases seen in past market cycles.
Warning Signs from Historical Volume Surges
- Analyst Martunn warns that XRP is now in a distribution phase, where large holders (whales) offload their positions to retail investors after a major price rally.
- XRP has experienced a 600% surge from November 2024 to January 2025, a pattern that closely resembles past distribution cycles.
- In 2021, XRP’s trading volume spiked just before a prolonged downtrend, as early buyers took profits while retail traders entered the market too late.
If history repeats, XRP could soon face another major correction, reinforcing the bearish outlook suggested by the symmetrical triangle breakdown.
Whales Are Selling: Declining Confidence in XRP?
A deeper look into on-chain data reveals that XRP whales—investors holding over 1 million XRP tokens—have been steadily selling off their holdings.
Key Whale Movements Indicating Distribution
- Whale balance dropped from 94.21 billion XRP to 90.21 billion XRP in the past year.
- This erased the gains from the post-U.S. election ‘Trump pump.’
- Historically, whale sell-offs lead to lower liquidity and increased selling pressure, causing smaller investors to panic-sell.
Whales have access to superior market insights, and their ongoing liquidation suggests a lack of confidence in XRP’s near-term potential. Their selling could create a ripple effect, accelerating a price drop and pushing XRP toward the $1.46 price target.
Final Thoughts on XRP Future Outlook
With a combination of technical breakdown risks, Trump’s exclusion of XRP from key strategic reserves, and whale distribution patterns, the cryptocurrency is facing a challenging period ahead. While a bullish turnaround is always possible, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor key support levels in the coming weeks.
