XRP Price Trends: SEC Appeal Withdrawal, Market Uncertainty, and Future Outlook

XRP has faced a turbulent price trend recently, with market participants closely watching developments in the ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Despite the potential conclusion of the case, XRP has failed to generate a sustained breakout to new highs. Instead, the cryptocurrency has experienced a prolonged downturn, leaving investors questioning the factors influencing its price action.

The uncertainty surrounding the SEC’s appeal strategy, Ripple’s settlement, and broader market conditions continues to weigh heavily on XRP. With the next SEC closed-door meeting scheduled for April 3, a major announcement could shape the cryptocurrency’s short-term and long-term trajectory.

The Legal Landscape: SEC vs. Ripple Developments

The SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple has been a defining issue for XRP’s price movements since 2020. Investors had hoped that the case’s resolution would provide regulatory clarity and pave the way for institutional adoption. However, recent legal developments have created new uncertainties.

Ripple CEO’s Statement and Market Reaction

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently stated that the SEC had agreed to withdraw its appeal challenging Judge Analisa Torres’ ruling on the Programmatic Sales of XRP. While this news was initially seen as a positive development, XRP’s price has declined by 15% since the announcement. This suggests that investors were expecting a more definitive resolution or are still concerned about the SEC’s next moves.

Ripple’s Cross-Appeal Withdrawal and Settlement Terms

In an attempt to expedite a settlement, Ripple decided to withdraw its cross-appeal against the SEC. Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty confirmed that Ripple reached favorable settlement terms with the regulator regarding the Final Judgment. One critical aspect of this settlement is Ripple’s request to vacate the injunction that currently prohibits XRP sales to institutional investors.

If this request is granted, Ripple could accelerate its expansion in the U.S. and increase XRP’s use in remittance and payment solutions. However, the market reaction to this news was also negative, with XRP dropping 11% following the cross-appeal withdrawal. This highlights lingering investor skepticism about the SEC’s stance and its potential impact on XRP’s future.

XRP Price Trends: Key Drivers and Scenarios

Several factors are influencing XRP’s price movements, including regulatory uncertainty, institutional adoption, and macroeconomic conditions. Let’s examine the key drivers and potential price scenarios.

Regulatory Clarity and SEC’s Next Steps

One of the most significant factors impacting XRP’s price is the SEC’s regulatory approach. The agency’s silence on its appeal strategy has left investors in limbo, creating uncertainty about whether a final resolution is near or if additional legal battles await.

The SEC’s upcoming closed meeting on April 3 could be a turning point. If the agency formally withdraws its appeal, XRP could see a bullish breakout. However, if the SEC maintains its ambiguous stance, continued regulatory uncertainty could weigh on the token’s price.

Institutional Adoption and XRP-Spot ETFs

A crucial aspect of XRP’s future price potential is the possibility of XRP-spot ETFs. If XRP secures an ETF approval, institutional investors could gain exposure to the asset, potentially driving significant price appreciation. Ripple’s growing role in the remittance sector, along with its partnerships with financial institutions, further strengthens its case for ETF approval.

SWIFT Partnership Speculation

A major catalyst for XRP’s future demand is its potential integration with SWIFT. Reports suggest that over 11,000 banks have successfully tested XRP on SWIFT’s network, signaling an increased likelihood of mainstream adoption. If SWIFT finalizes an agreement with Ripple for cross-border payments, XRP demand could surge dramatically.

However, if these reports prove to be unsubstantiated or if SWIFT opts for alternative blockchain solutions, XRP’s price may face additional downward pressure.

Potential Price Scenarios

Given these factors, XRP’s future price trajectory could follow one of two major scenarios: a bullish breakout or a bearish decline.

Bullish Scenario: XRP Rallies Toward All-Time Highs

If the SEC formally withdraws its appeal and Ripple successfully vacates the institutional sales injunction, XRP could experience a significant rally. Additional catalysts for a bullish run include:

Approval of XRP-spot ETFs
Confirmation of a SWIFT partnership
Increased adoption of Ripple’s payment solutions by financial institutions

Under this scenario, XRP could retest its all-time high of $3.5505. If institutional demand grows further, prices could extend toward $5, driven by sustained buying pressure and reduced regulatory risk.

Bearish Scenario: XRP Declines Below Key Support Levels

On the downside, XRP faces several risk factors that could push its price below $1.50. Potential bearish catalysts include:

SEC delaying its appeal withdrawal or pursuing further regulatory action
Ripple’s failure to secure a settlement that allows institutional XRP sales
SWIFT choosing an alternative blockchain payment solution
Lack of progress on XRP-spot ETFs

If these risks materialize, XRP could break below the crucial $2 support level and test its 200-day EMA around $1.9299. A deeper correction could push the token below $1.50, especially if broader market conditions remain bearish.

XRP Technical Analysis

Daily Chart Analysis

XRP’s recent five-day losing streak has positioned it below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating short-term resistance. However, it remains above the 200-day EMA, suggesting long-term support.

A breakout above the 50-day EMA could allow XRP to retest the March 19 high of $2.5925.
If momentum continues, the next resistance level is the January 16 high of $3.3999.
Conversely, a drop below $2 would bring the 200-day EMA and the $1.9299 support level into focus.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) Insights

XRP’s 14-day RSI stands at 43.65, indicating that the asset is approaching oversold territory but still has room for further declines. If the RSI drops below 30, it could signal a buying opportunity for traders expecting a rebound.

Market Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty

Despite regulatory uncertainty, XRP continues to gain traction in the financial sector. Its growing adoption, potential SWIFT integration, and ETF prospects offer long-term growth potential. However, the near-term outlook remains highly dependent on:

The SEC’s stance on its appeal withdrawal
Progress on Ripple’s settlement
Developments regarding XRP-spot ETFs
The outcome of SWIFT’s blockchain integration plans

: Key Takeaways for Investors

Investors should closely monitor upcoming regulatory developments and market catalysts to determine XRP’s next major move. While the potential for a bullish breakout remains strong, continued legal uncertainties and macroeconomic challenges could keep the token in a volatile trading range.

Bullish Signal: If the SEC withdraws its appeal, Ripple secures favorable settlement terms, and institutional adoption accelerates, XRP could rally toward $3.50 and beyond.
Bearish Signal: Delays in regulatory clarity, setbacks in institutional adoption, and macroeconomic pressures could push XRP below $2, with further downside potential toward $1.50.