The price of XRP remains in a state of flux as investors anticipate the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) upcoming closed meeting on April 3. The meeting is expected to address a potential vote to withdraw its appeal related to XRP’s classification as a security. The outcome of this decision could significantly influence the token’s short-term and long-term price movement, with market participants keeping a close eye on developments.
XRP’s Recent Price Action: A Tumultuous March
Since Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s announcement on March 19 regarding the SEC’s intention to withdraw its appeal, XRP has faced considerable selling pressure. The remittance token has seen a 19% decline, trading around $2.1088 at the time of writing. This drop comes amid a broader market correction that has affected several major cryptocurrencies.
Despite the decline, XRP continues to maintain a strong market capitalization of $122.3 billion. However, the cryptocurrency remains approximately 40% below its all-time high of $3.40, highlighting the ongoing uncertainty surrounding its regulatory fate.
Technical Analysis: Bearish Sentiment Prevails
Technical indicators point to a prevailing bearish sentiment, suggesting that XRP may continue to face downward pressure in the near term. Several key indicators highlight the token’s current struggles:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): At 39, XRP’s RSI suggests weak momentum below the neutral 50 mark, indicating continued selling pressure.
- Commodity Channel Index (CCI): The CCI stands at -182.70, placing XRP in the oversold territory.
- Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic %K is at 11.67%, signaling a severe lack of buying interest.
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD line remains negative at -0.06, issuing a clear sell signal.
- Awesome Oscillator (AO): The AO is also negative at -0.13, further reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Should selling pressure persist, XRP could fall below the crucial $2 mark, leading to potential panic selling and a deeper retracement to $1.80 or lower.
The Ripple-SEC Saga: A Critical Turning Point
The SEC’s case against Ripple has been a pivotal factor in XRP’s market performance. On March 19, Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, shared proposed settlement terms linked to Judge Analisa Torres’ Final Judgment. These terms suggest a reduction in the penalty from $150 million to $50 million—significantly lower than the SEC’s initial demand of $2 billion. Additionally, the proposal includes vacating the injunction that has restricted XRP sales to institutional investors.
Despite these developments, the SEC has not formally confirmed its intention to withdraw the appeal. Legal experts, including pro-crypto attorney Fred Rispoli, believe that the SEC Commission is likely to vote within the next 30 days. Rispoli further suggested that Judge Torres could vacate the injunction within the same timeframe, stating, “At most, we are 60 days out from this being 100%, formally, legally, and spectacularly over.”
Spot ETFs: A Potential Catalyst for Price Recovery?
Despite XRP’s recent struggles, optimism remains regarding the potential approval of XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Currently, 18 applications for XRP ETFs are awaiting regulatory approval. A favorable decision in this regard could serve as a major bullish catalyst, potentially driving XRP closer to its previous all-time high.
Regulatory clarity in the ETF space has historically led to significant price surges for cryptocurrencies. If XRP ETFs receive approval, institutional interest in the token is likely to increase, leading to greater liquidity and price appreciation.
Market Sentiment and Broader Economic Factors
XRP’s performance is also influenced by broader economic and market trends. Factors such as recession fears, developments in U.S. labor markets, and ongoing tariff discussions have contributed to heightened volatility across financial markets, including crypto.
However, the resolution of Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC remains the most critical factor in determining XRP’s short-term outlook. A decisive settlement or regulatory clarity could reinvigorate investor confidence and push XRP toward a bullish trajectory.
Final Thoughts: What’s Next for XRP?
The upcoming SEC meeting on April 3 will be a crucial event for XRP holders and the broader crypto community. If the SEC officially withdraws its appeal, XRP could see a significant price rebound, potentially breaking out of its current consolidation phase.
Conversely, if the SEC delays its decision or opts for further legal proceedings, XRP may continue facing downward pressure, with the possibility of breaching the $2 support level.
With technical indicators still favoring the bears, traders should exercise caution and monitor key support and resistance levels closely. In the long run, regulatory clarity and ETF approvals could provide the necessary momentum for XRP to reclaim its former highs.
As developments unfold, XRP investors and market analysts will remain vigilant, anticipating whether the SEC’s decision will mark the beginning of a new bullish phase or extend the current period of uncertainty.
